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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 95

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 38-K.Kroeger punts 67 yards to IND 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.07 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 95, worth -5.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model