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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 61

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(:39) 38-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to IND 9, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould to IND 14 for 5 yards (11-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.27 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model