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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 3-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.27 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model