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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould to IND 36 for 20 yards (56-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model