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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model