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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.40 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP