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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model