Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-K.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 16, RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at CIN 14. PIT-26-B.Echols was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.50 EP
66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model