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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.16 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model