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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model