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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at PIT 21 for 21 yards (22-A.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model