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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-W.Wagner. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 15 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.70 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP