4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model