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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.04 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP