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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 34 for 4 yards (29-A.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model