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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 21 – Carolina Panthers 18

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 17 for -2 yards (91-P.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +1.52 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.27 EP