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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to CAR 19, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model