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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 18 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to CAR 24 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden; 49-C.Schwesinger).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.00 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 84, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 42, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP