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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 10 – Carolina Panthers 12

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model