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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 9 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 19, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model