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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 6 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 10-R.Fitzgerald 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model