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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 90

Cleveland Browns 10 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to CAR 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-D.Moore to CAR 34 for 6 yards (24-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.58 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model