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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 10 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to CAR 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-D.Moore to CAR 20 for 8 yards (11-M.Corley).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model