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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP