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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model