Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CLE 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 18 for 3 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 46-J.Kuwatch). PENALTY on CLE-35-T.Pride, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model