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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 82-T.Tremble.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model