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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.35 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model