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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 47 for -10 yards (94-M.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.06 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model