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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 27 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model