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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 14

Chicago Bears 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP