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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 2

Chicago Bears 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden (48-O.Speights).

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model