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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 12-P.Nacua right end to CHI 5 for 2 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +3.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model