4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model