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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-D.Duvernay MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 8. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 23 for 15 yards (24-E.Neal; 44-J.McQuaide).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.40 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP