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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 68

Chicago Bears 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 19-T.Taylor punts 44 yards to LA 24, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model