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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 92-H.Mevis 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +2.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model