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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 29

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: LA-1-E.Forbes has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.09 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model