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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 21

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at LA 1. 14-C.Durant to LA 15 for 14 yards (2-D.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.06 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model