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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 80

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to BUF 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 16-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model