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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 10

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP