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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 27 – Denver Broncos 30

What Actually Happened

(:10) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model