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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 24 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model