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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Los Angeles Chargers
4th & 2 at the 2
Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
The Three Options
GO
+2.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.26 EP
- 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 2, worth -0.00 EP
KICK
+1.28 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
