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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to NE 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-M.Jones to NE 8 for no gain (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model