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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at NE 43 for -9 yards (97-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP