Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New England Patriots 16

(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden pushed ob at LAC 35 for 10 yards (22-C.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.15 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.07 EP