4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 50

New England Patriots 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to LAC 12, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model