Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New England Patriots 9

(14:10) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.80 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model