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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to NE 15, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model